IB Predicted Grades: How They Work and What They Mean

By Michael Thompson · Education Specialist; 10 years teaching the IB at Bromsgrove School · Published 21 May 2026 · Updated 12 June 2026

IB predicted grades are the grades your teachers expect you to achieve in your final IB Diploma examinations - and for most students applying to UK universities, they are the only academic signal admissions tutors see before results day. They appear on your UCAS application before you sit a single exam, which means a university may make, decline, or condition an offer entirely on your teacher's forecast. Getting a realistic picture of how those forecasts are made - and what happens when they are wrong - is the most practically useful thing a Diploma student can do in Year 12 or early Year 13.

Key Takeaways

In This Article

  1. What IB Predicted Grades Are and Why They Matter
  2. How IB Predicted Grades Are Calculated
  3. When Predicted Grades Are Issued and Key Deadlines
  4. How Accurate Are IB Predicted Grades?
  5. IB Predicted Grades and University Entry Requirements
  6. Where to Put IB Predicted Grades on UCAS and Common App
  7. Can IB Predicted Grades Change - and How to Ask for a Revision
  8. What to Do If Your Final IB Grades Miss Your Predicted
  9. What to Do Next

1. What IB Predicted Grades Are and Why They Matter

IB predicted grades are a class teacher's professional forecast of the score a student is likely to achieve in each IB Diploma subject when final exams are sat. Schools submit these grades before results are released, typically as part of a university application. The International Baccalaureate Organisation (IBO) does not calculate or standardise predicted grades: the school owns the process entirely, which means two students with identical coursework profiles can receive different predictions depending on their teachers' judgement and school policy.

Why does that matter? Because for UK university applications, the offer you receive from Bristol, Edinburgh, or Imperial is almost always based on your predicted grades rather than your final results. The same applies to Common App submissions for US universities that request them. Per UCAS, predicted grades must cover all pending qualifications and must be finalised at the point of application submission, because providers may not be able to accommodate corrections later, particularly for highly selective courses.

One counter-intuitive quirk: optimistic predictions are common. UCAS data shows that around half of UK 18-year-olds were predicted AAA and above in 2024, while only 26% of accepted applicants actually achieved that. For IB students, an inflated predicted grade can win a conditional offer that then falls through in July.

2. How IB Predicted Grades Are Calculated

There is no standardised formula. Your IB predicted grades are a teacher's professional judgement call, and the process varies considerably between schools.

Subject teachers typically draw on several sources of evidence:

The Extended Essay and Theory of Knowledge (TOK) also feed into the picture. Together they contribute up to 3 bonus points toward the 45-point IB total, so a teacher predicting 38 points needs to account for what a student is likely to earn from those components, not just the six subject grades.

One non-obvious quirk: because IA grades are confirmed before predicted grades are submitted, a student who performs strongly on their IA but struggles in mocks can end up with a higher prediction than their exam trajectory alone would suggest. The reverse is also true, and it catches students off guard.

How schools organise the process differs too. Ofqual's 2020 research into centre assessment grades found that centres took one of two broad approaches: centrally-designed processes led by senior management, or processes delegated to individual subject departments. Some schools compiled data files with suggested calculations; others left each teacher to apply guidance independently. IB schools follow a similar split.

Per UCAS guidance, predicted grades must cover all pending qualifications unless the assessment method makes prediction impossible.

3. When Predicted Grades Are Issued and Key Deadlines

Timing matters here more than most students realise. Predictions must be in place before the application is submitted, not after, so the deadlines that govern your UCAS or Common App submission effectively govern your predicted grades too.

UK deadlines

Application typeUCAS deadline
Oxford, Cambridge, medicine, dentistry, veterinary science15 October (Year 13)
Most other UK universities31 January (Year 13)

For the October deadline courses, predictions are typically locked in during the first few weeks of Year 13, sometimes based on only one or two mock sittings and a handful of internal assessments. Teachers are, in practice, forecasting on limited evidence at that point.

Per UCAS, once an application is submitted, providers may not be able to accommodate corrections, and this is particularly acute for highly selective courses. If an adviser has genuine uncertainty about a prediction, the right place to flag it is Section 2 of the reference, not a post-submission email to the admissions office.

US and international timelines

For Common App, US universities typically request predicted grades in the autumn of the student's final IB year, alongside a school report completed by the counsellor. Early Decision deadlines often fall in November, so the same compressed evidence problem applies.

The non-obvious gotcha: IB students whose schools follow a September start usually have fewer formal data points than A-level students at the equivalent stage, because IB internal assessments accumulate across both years rather than front-loading in Year 12. A teacher predicting a 7 in IB English in October may have nothing more than one individual oral and a couple of in-class essays to go on.

4. How Accurate Are IB Predicted Grades?

Predicted grades across UK admissions lean heavily optimistic. Per UCAS, around half of UK 18-year-olds were predicted AAA or above in 2024, yet only 26% of accepted applicants actually achieved that. The gap has widened over time. IB predicted grades follow the same pattern: teachers regularly predict totals in the 38-42 range that students do not ultimately reach, because the pressure to secure competitive offers creates an incentive to predict high.

Underprediction does happen, but it is less common. It tends to appear in two specific situations: borderline students whose teachers choose caution, and cases where Internal Assessment marks are still being moderated when the prediction is written. A teacher who has submitted IA work but not yet seen provisional marks from the IBO is essentially guessing at a component worth 20-30% of a subject grade. That uncertainty often pulls predictions downward.

Accuracy also varies by subject. Subjects with large IA components, such as IB English, sciences, and maths, give teachers more evidence to work from before the final exams. A student's extended essay grade (worth up to 3 points toward the diploma total) and Theory of Knowledge score are similarly concrete inputs once completed. Pure exam-heavy subjects leave more room for error in either direction.

One concrete, non-obvious quirk: because IB predicted grade totals are a sum of six subjects plus bonus points, a teacher who over-predicts by one grade in three subjects simultaneously produces a predicted total that looks plausible (say, 40) but would require the student to outperform their trajectory in every component at once.

If you want a reality check on where predicted totals actually sit for admitted students at specific universities, UCAS launched a historical entry grades data tool showing real grades of previously admitted applicants. As of May 2025, the tool had been used over two million times, which suggests it fills a genuine gap. Use it to compare your IB predicted grades against what students who actually got in were holding.

5. IB Predicted Grades and University Entry Requirements

UK universities translate IB predicted grades into conditional offers that specify two things: a minimum total score on the 45-point IB Diploma scale, and minimum grades in named Higher Level (HL) subjects. The combination matters because a strong total built on Standard Level scores alone often won't satisfy a selective offer.

Oxford's Assyriology course illustrates how precise these requirements get: UCAS lists the entry requirement as 39 points overall with 6 6 6 at Higher Level. That means you could score 39 points and still not meet the offer if any single HL subject falls below a 6. The overall total and the subject-level floor are both hard requirements, not suggestions.

The counter-intuitive implication: chasing a higher total by loading easier HL subjects can backfire if the specific HL scores then fall short. Check the subject conditions, not just the headline number.

For US universities, IB predicted grades typically arrive via Common App or a separate school report. Emory University notes that while there is no minimum IB score for admission, its most competitive applicants earn final HL scores of 6 or 7. Institutions such as Stanford, Cornell, Columbia, and UC Berkeley apply broadly similar thinking, reading predicted scores alongside GPA and school context rather than applying a rigid cutoff.

To see what admitted students at a specific UK institution actually scored, rather than relying on published minimums alone, use the UCAS historical entry grades tool. It shows the real grade distribution of students who were offered and accepted places, which is often lower than the headline requirement suggests and sometimes higher at oversubscribed courses.

6. Where to Put IB Predicted Grades on UCAS and Common App

On UCAS, your school adviser enters the grades, not you. IB predicted grades appear in the qualifications section of your UCAS application, submitted by your adviser through the Adviser Portal. Per UCAS, predicted grades must cover all pending qualifications and must be finalised before submission, because universities may not be able to accommodate corrections later, particularly for selective courses. Before your adviser submits, ask to see exactly what has been entered. A mistyped predicted grade is surprisingly easy to miss and hard to fix after the fact.

One non-obvious quirk: if your adviser has limited direct knowledge of your academic performance, they can note this in Section 2 of the UCAS reference rather than leaving a gap. UCAS confirms that the UCAS Predicted Grades Report, available via the Adviser Portal, helps advisers track what has been submitted across a cohort.

On Common App, the process is similar: the school counsellor submits a school report that includes your IB predicted grades. You do not enter them directly. For US universities, the IB 1-7 scale and the 45-point total can be unfamiliar to admissions officers who are more accustomed to A-levels or the US GPA system. Your counsellor should use the accompanying notes to explain the scale explicitly, and to clarify where your predicted grades sit relative to the IB's grade boundaries, so the reader can place your scores in context without guessing.

7. Can IB Predicted Grades Change - and How to Ask for a Revision

IB predicted grades can be revised before your UCAS application is submitted. After submission, UCAS warns that providers may not be able to accommodate corrections, particularly for highly selective courses. So if you have grounds to challenge a prediction, act before the application goes in.

The IBO sets no predicted grades and has no mechanism to revise them. This is entirely your school's responsibility. There is no formal IB appeals process for predicted grades, and the school's professional judgement is final. That is a harder constraint than most students realise.

If you think a prediction is too low, here is the process to follow:

  1. Speak to the subject teacher first. Bring concrete evidence: your Internal Assessment (IA) draft mark, recent mock results, and any graded coursework. Vague appeals fail; numbers do not.
  2. Escalate to the IB coordinator if the teacher declines. The coordinator can review the prediction against the school's internal benchmarks, but cannot override a teacher's judgement without good reason.
  3. Accept the limit if no revision is possible. The predicted grade stands.

One non-obvious gotcha: a teacher may be reluctant to predict above the grade they are already internally assessing you at for the final IB mark, because an inflated prediction can reflect poorly on the school's accuracy record. Knowing this helps you frame the conversation around evidence rather than aspiration.

If your ib predicted grades genuinely cannot be revised upward, your adviser can include additional context about your circumstances in Section 2 of the UCAS reference. This will not change the number universities see, but it gives admissions tutors a reason to read the prediction with more context.

8. What to Do If Your Final IB Grades Miss Your Predicted

Missing your predicted grades is stressful, but the options are more specific than most students realise. Here is what each route actually involves.

UCAS Clearing (UK applicants)

If your final IB results mean you do not meet your firm offer, UCAS Clearing opens in July and allows you to apply for unfilled university places. You are eligible if you hold no confirmed place. Courses with late availability range from near-equivalent programmes at similar universities to strong courses at institutions where predicted grades had previously screened you out. Worth checking the UCAS search tool on results day itself, when the available list updates in real time.

IB exam resits

The IBO offers a November resit session for May candidates. Critically, you can resit specific subjects rather than the entire diploma, which means a targeted resit costs less time and money than starting over. If your shortfall is one subject, a November resit can produce a revised transcript in time for deferred or the following year's entry cycle.

The Extended Essay and TOK gotcha

A detail that catches students off guard: the Extended Essay and Theory of Knowledge together contribute up to 3 bonus points. A drop from a B to a C in either component can reduce your total by one point without any subject grade changing. If your final total falls short by one or two points, check whether the bonus point matrix is where the gap appeared before assuming a subject resit is necessary.

Appealing the IB result

If you believe an exam was marked incorrectly, your school can request a Remarks service through the IBO. This is separate from any predicted grade dispute with your teacher, and fees apply. Results of a remark can go up as well as down, so review your mark scheme before committing.

Gap year and deferred entry

Some universities will allow you to defer entry and reapply using your actual final grades. Contact the admissions office directly, as this is handled case by case rather than through a standard UCAS process.

9. What to Do Next

Your most useful move this week is to open the UCAS historical entry grades tool for each course on your shortlist. It shows the actual grade distributions of students admitted in previous cycles, not just the headline entry requirements. That gap matters: it gives you a realistic benchmark before you sit down with your teacher to discuss what predicted grades are reasonable to request. The tool takes about ten minutes per course and, per UCAS, has already been used over two million times.

One non-obvious point: check the distribution, not just the median. Highly selective courses often admit a tail of students below the stated requirement, which can shift your read of where your predicted grades need to land.

If your final IB results come in below predictions, read up on IB exam resits and what UCAS Clearing looks like for IB students at our Clearing guide.

FAQ

What are IB predicted grades?

IB predicted grades are your teachers' professional forecasts of the scores you are likely to achieve in your final IB Diploma exams, submitted to universities before those exams take place.

How are IB predicted grades calculated?

Teachers base predictions on internal assessments, mock exam results, coursework, and class performance - there is no standardised formula, and the school is solely responsible for the judgement.

Are IB predicted grades accurate?

Overprediction is common: UCAS data shows roughly half of UK 18-year-olds were predicted AAA or equivalent in 2024, yet only 26% of accepted applicants achieved it - IB totals follow a similar pattern, meaning final scores often fall short of predictions.

When are IB predicted grades submitted?

For UK UCAS applications, predicted grades must be finalised before submission - by 15 October for Oxford, Cambridge, and health profession courses, and 31 January for most other universities.

Can IB predicted grades be changed?

Before UCAS submission, a teacher can revise a prediction if presented with stronger evidence; after submission, corrections are very difficult and the IBO has no role in the process.

Do IB predicted grades matter for US universities?

Yes - US universities including Ivy League schools often request IB predicted grades via Common App or a school report, and use them alongside GPA and other materials to assess applicants before final scores are available.

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